We examined multiple likely causal reasons that in combination exacerbated the 2008 crisis in the United States. Our analysis removed the “least important” variables and left us with four variables with high explanatory power – decline in home prices, a doubling in oil and higher energy prices, wealth destruction in equity markets and large reduction in credit availability. We do not see this combination of factors during 2020.
Value stocks are priced cheaper than growth. Market expectations of economic growth are low for 2020
Sectors most punished in Q1 have rebounded most in Q2. Especially energy after oil prices rise and economy opens. Financials and industrial pricing in future growth and consumer discretionary reflects fundamentals. Technology, concentrated in 5 firms, a big part of S&P 500 and likely overvalued.
ActiveAllocator Research – We draw attention to management compensation, retention, severance provisions in private equity buyouts and private equity deals – a subject of much curiosity, but has been largely kept under wraps for a long time. Follow our blog over the next week for a daily update on this topic.
“Private labs start testing for corona virus, prompting concerns about cost and insurance co-pays” screams a news headline. Here, in this visual, is how I interpret this – follow the money!
Emmanuel Macron of France clearly upstaged all other EU leaders and certainly President Trump at the NATO summit this week. Here is my analysis on his vision for Europe and his increasing assertiveness.
#Germany: Lead, follow, or get out of EU’s way! My political view from beautiful #FreiburgCathedral, Germany ..built around 700 years ago. What does Germany want to be when it grows up?
ActiveAllocator revises macro eco outlook for Switzerland. Forecast diverges from OECD and Wall Street consensus…
#ActiveAllocator response to today #WSJ headlines ” Oil Prices Plunge as Oversupply…”. Frames issue in wider context of #Energy investing and #IEA World Energy Outlook 2018
I am totally and fervently opposed to Trump’s trade tariffs that is going to harm US consumers. My reasons are: